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Boosters, Bias and Math

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From vaccine math to biosafety preprints, recent studies reveal that unreported risks and hidden biases shape our understanding of COVID more than most headlines admit. Remember when getting vaccinated against COVID felt simple? One shot, maybe two, and you were done. Fast forward a few years, and we’ve had first doses, second doses, boosters, updated boosters, and debates about whether you need a booster for your booster . But a recent study crunching UK mortality data says: “Hold up. Maybe more shots aren’t adding as much protection as we think.” Add in your earlier research about antibody changes after repeated doses , and suddenly the COVID vaccine story feels less like “science is settled” and more like “science is a detective novel.” Let’s break it down in plain language. A.J. Oostenbrink’s new preprint looked at COVID and non-COVID death rates in the UK over two years. Instead of assuming COVID deaths rise proportionally with overall health risk, they used a formula: D covi...
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Nimbus and Stratus: Cloudy With a Chance of Covid

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As we venture into the end of summer, there’s no denying that COVID-19 is making its move again. Covid waves always follow a seasonal pattern  - two waves per year: winter and summer or fall. So far, the smallest (not in terms of deadliness though, just the number of infected) wave hit during the winter of 2020-2021, while the Omicron surge of 2021-2022 took the crown for the biggest wave. Last year was a bit of a wild card, with the summer/fall wave being slightly taller than the winter one. However, so far, this year hasn’t had much of a summer/fall wave (yet) but hold on tight because things are looking a little more intense as we approach the winter. From December 2024 to February 2025, we experienced what could be called "Wave X," a quieter episode compared to earlier waves, but it still made its presence felt. Fast forward to August 2025, and we’re beginning to see the rise of the next wave—a little like what we saw in 2023 and 2024. According to Mike Hoerger’s post on ...
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Boosting Immunity, Boosting Risk? The Surprising Link Between IgG4 and COVID Breakthrough Infections

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Post-Vaccination IgG4 and IgG2 Class Switching is linked to Increased Risk of SARS-CoV-2 Infections A new study published in Infectious Disease Practice has revealed a concerning correlation between the class switching of antibodies after COVID-19 mRNA booster vaccinations and a heightened risk of breakthrough infections. Specifically, the study found that elevated levels of IgG4 and IgG2 antibodies, which increase significantly following the third mRNA dose, are linked to an increased risk of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections.  The study analyzed a longitudinal subset of 83 healthcare workers who received three doses of the COVID-19 vaccine. Additionally, they included 66 healthcare workers from the same cohorts who were analyzed at a specific timepoint (T9) corresponding to May 2022, four months after the first booster vaccination. The study, conducted by a team of researchers from Spain, tracked the immune responses of healthcare workers over nearly three years. They observed ...
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Wave X

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From wild type to Alpha (B.1.1.7), Delta (B.1.617.2), Omicron BA.1, BA.2, BA.5,  BQ.1/BA.2.75,  XBB, JN.1, FLiRT variants and now XEC and LP.8.1 (BA.2.86.1), the virus keeps evolving, continuously demonstrating its ability to adapt and mutate.  As we enter the tenth wave of COVID-19 in the U.S, the XEC variant has emerged as the dominant strain - in line with expectations. It could be " a weak leading variant "  but will it be a " very muted holiday wave relative to all prior years , due to weak evolution and large summer numbers"?  Until recently in the US KP.3.1.1 was dominating wastewater samples and accounting for a considerable proportion of infections. Looking at the growth advantages of variants over the last year led to predictions of significantly lower impact  than JN.1 that "XEC should only modestly bump what the winter wave would be without any new variant" by one of COVID forecasters . But other variants are also gaining traction. The off...
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Crossroads of Pathogens: The Evolving Threat of Avian Influenza

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Influenza viruses are infamous for their ability to mutate and adapt, making the study of their evolution critical for public health. Some like H5N1 are severe, others as H7N3 are typically present with mild symptoms. The classification of influenza subtypes relies on the hemagglutinin (H) and neuraminidase (N) proteins on the viral surface, with 18 H subtypes and 11 N subtypes combining into diverse influenza strains. While most pose limited risks to humans, certain mutations can significantly alter their behavior. Case 1: Mutated H5N1 in a Vancouver Teen Canadian teen, who lives in the Fraser Health Region of British Columbia, first developed symptoms on Nov. 2 and was tested on Nov. 8, with a positive result confirmed on Nov. 9.  It was the first positive case of bird flu detected in a human in Canada. The teenager, hospitalized with a mutated H5N1 strain, was unconscious for over two weeks. The teen has made progress and is expected to recover. Alarmingly, this strain exhibits ...
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First Documented Transmission of a Newly Minted Hybrid SARS-CoV-2 Variant

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In a recent case report, Swedish scientists documented the first known transmission of a novel recombinant SARS-CoV-2 variant. The case highlights how a patient co-infected with two different strains—sublineages of XBB (HV.1) and BA.2.86.1—generated and transmitted a hybrid variant to another patient within a hospital setting. In October 2023, routine genomic surveillance in Stockholm identified a recombinant variant in a patient (Patient B). This hybrid virus combined genetic material from two distinct lineages: the 5′ part of the genome from HV.1 and the 3′ part from BA.2.86.1. The recombination occurred at the orf1b and S gene junction, producing a novel variant not observed in other Swedish patients. Meanwhile, another patient (Patient A), co-hospitalized in the same ward, was found to be co-infected with both HV.1 and BA.2.86.1. Sequencing revealed that about 30% of the virus in Patient A came from the BA.2.86.1 lineage. The two patients shared six rare mutations, confirming that ...
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Cytokine Storms After COVID-19 Vaccination

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Severe post-vaccinal complications could be driven by an overactive immune response. In a new case series , recently published in Cureus, three rheumatic disease patients with low disease activity needed hospitalization and new biological treatments, and one patient died after her 4th dose of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine. Cytokine analysis showed elevated levels of IL-1β, IL-6, IL-17, and TNF-α, indicating a cytokine storm, possibly triggered by IL-6 amplification (IL-6 Amp). This mechanism involves excessive IL-6 production through a feedback loop activated by simultaneous stimulation of NF-κB and STAT3 pathways Case 1: Acute Exacerbation of Interstitial Pneumonia in an 80-Year-Old Woman An 80-year-old woman with a history of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) had been in remission for five years thanks to a regimen including subcutaneous tocilizumab (TCZ-SC) and tacrolimus. However, after receiving the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, she developed severe dyspnea requiring oxygen. Her CT scan revealed new...
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