Clouds Shift Again: Stratus Dominates, Cicada Stirs
In summer 2025, the Nimbus (NB.1.8.1) and Stratus (XFG) variants were competing for dominance (see previous post Nimbus and Stratus: Cloudy With a Chance of Covid ). By that point, earlier JN.1-descended variants such as LP.8.1 had already been largely displaced. That competition is now largely settled, with Stratus and its descendants firmly in the lead across most regions. As of early January 2026, Stratus (XFG) and its descendants dominate globally. In the U.S., sequencing and wastewater data show XFG making up 60–70% of cases, and when its sublineages (XFG.14.1, XFG.1, XFG.6) are included, the total reaches ~80% by late December. Nimbus has fallen sharply and now accounts for roughly 5% of sequenced cases. The new variant to watch is BA.3.2 nicknamed “Cicada”. Unlike recent variants that evolved incrementally from JN.1, BA.3.2 represents a larger evolutionary jump. It's a descendant of early Omicron BA.3, a lineage that largely disappeared in 2022. Cicada was designated by WHO...