Identification of immune correlates of fatal outcomes in critically ill COVID-19 patients

Immunotyping of 41 clinically well-characterized, mechanically ventilated (MV), ICU COVID-19 patients, 21 of whom died, and 18 MV influenza patients, showed that fatal COVID-19 infection is driven by uncoordinated inflammatory responses. Previous studies suggested that in severe COVID-19 the gradient of immune activation characterized by elevated levels of inflammatory cytokines is either very high or very low. In this study, COVID patients who died had significantly elevated levels of a number of immune mediators including GM-CSF, CXCL10, IL-6, CCL20, CCL2, coagulation factor III, IL-15, TFPI (tissue factor pathway inhibitor), and CCL19.  Elevated CXCL10 and GM-CSF were the strongest signals, while CXCL5 had the strongest negative association. CD40 ligand, EGF, and CXCL1 were also decreased. Elevated soluble CD40L and EGF were associated with survival in both flu and COVID, but the underlying reasons appear different. Unexpectedly, median serum concentration of all cytokines/chemokines positively associated with mortality in the COVID cohort were even higher in the FLU cohort, suggesting magnitude of the inflammatory response per se is not sufficient to explain the association of these proteins with mortality. The more pronounced lymphopenia in COVID patients who died manifested as a significant reduction in T cell counts, which was due to a proportional global reduction in abundance of all T cell populations analyzed, as opposed to loss of any specific T cell subset. The paper argues against the notion that a hallmark of COVID-19 is an overwhelming “cytokine storm”. Instead, a more complex and nuanced dysregulation of acute responses appears to be associated with fatal outcomes. T cell activation pathways can serve as prognostic indicators and potential targets for immune intervention.  


Identification of immune correlates of fatal outcomes in critically ill COVID-19 patients

Jonathan Youngs

Contributed equally to this work with: Jonathan Youngs, Nicholas M. Provine, Nicholas Lim

ROLES Conceptualization, Investigation, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

AFFILIATIONS Institute for Infection & Immunity, St. George’s University of London, London, United Kingdom, Clinical Academic Group in Infection and Immunity, St. George’s Hospital NHS Trust, London, United Kingdom

Nicholas M. Provine

Contributed equally to this work with: Jonathan Youngs, Nicholas M. Provine, Nicholas Lim

ROLES Conceptualization, Investigation, Project administration, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

AFFILIATIONS Peter Medawar Building for Pathogen Research, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom, Translational Gastroenterology Unit, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

Nicholas Lim

Contributed equally to this work with: Jonathan Youngs, Nicholas M. Provine, Nicholas Lim

ROLES Conceptualization, Investigation, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

AFFILIATION Peter Medawar Building for Pathogen Research, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

Hannah R. Sharpe

ROLES Investigation, Writing – review & editing

‡ HS, AA, Y-LC, and JL also contributed equally to this work.

AFFILIATION Jenner Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

Ali Amini

ROLES Investigation, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

‡ HS, AA, Y-LC, and JL also contributed equally to this work.

AFFILIATIONS Peter Medawar Building for Pathogen Research, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom, Translational Gastroenterology Unit, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

Yi-Ling Chen

ROLES Investigation, Writing – review & editing

‡ HS, AA, Y-LC, and JL also contributed equally to this work.

AFFILIATION MRC Human Immunology Unit, Weatherall Institute of Molecular Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

Jian Luo

ROLES Investigation, Writing – review & editing

‡ HS, AA, Y-LC, and JL also contributed equally to this work.

AFFILIATION Respiratory Medicine Unit, and Oxford NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

Matthew D. Edmans

ROLES Investigation, Writing – review & editing

AFFILIATION Peter Medawar Building for Pathogen Research, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

Panagiota Zacharopoulou

ROLES Investigation, Writing – review & editing

AFFILIATION Peter Medawar Building for Pathogen Research, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

Wentao Chen

ROLES Investigation

AFFILIATION Respiratory Medicine Unit, and Oxford NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

Oliver Sampson

ROLES Investigation, Writing – review & editing

AFFILIATION Peter Medawar Building for Pathogen Research, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

Robert Paton

ROLES Investigation, Writing – review & editing

AFFILIATION Peter Medawar Building for Pathogen Research, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

William J. Hurt

ROLES Data curation, Resources, Writing – review & editing

AFFILIATIONS Institute for Infection & Immunity, St. George’s University of London, London, United Kingdom, Clinical Academic Group in Infection and Immunity, St. George’s Hospital NHS Trust, London, United Kingdom

David A. Duncan

ROLES Investigation, Writing – review & editing

AFFILIATIONS MRC Human Immunology Unit, Weatherall Institute of Molecular Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom, Diamond Light Source, Harwell Science and Innovation Campus, Didcot, United Kingdom

Anna L. McNaughton

ROLES Investigation, Writing – review & editing

AFFILIATION Peter Medawar Building for Pathogen Research, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

Vincent N. Miao

ROLES Investigation, Resources, Writing – review & editing

AFFILIATIONS Institute for Medical Engineering and Science, Department of Chemistry, and Koch Institute for Integrative Cancer Research, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States of America, Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States of America, Ragon Institute of MGH, MIT, and Harvard, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States of America

Susannah Leaver

ROLES Resources, Writing – review & editing

AFFILIATION Intensive Care Medicine, St George’s University Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, London, United Kingdom

Duncan L. A. Wyncoll

ROLES Resources, Writing – review & editing

AFFILIATION Intensive Care Medicine, Guy’s and St Thomas’ Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, London, United Kingdom

Jonathan Ball

ROLES Resources, Writing – review & editing

AFFILIATION Intensive Care Medicine, St George’s University Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, London, United Kingdom

Philip Hopkins

ROLES Resources, Writing – review & editing

AFFILIATION Centre for Human & Applied Physiological Sciences, School of Basic & Medical Biosciences, Faculty of Life Sciences, & Medicine, King’s College, London, United Kingdom

Oxford Immunology Network Covid-19 response T cell Consortium

Membership of the Oxford Immunology Network Covid-19 response T cell Consortium and Oxford Protective T cell Immunology for COVID-19 (OPTIC) Clinical team are listed in the Acknowledgments.

Oxford Protective T cell Immunology for COVID-19 (OPTIC) Clinical team

Membership of the Oxford Immunology Network Covid-19 response T cell Consortium and Oxford Protective T cell Immunology for COVID-19 (OPTIC) Clinical team are listed in the Acknowledgments.

Donal T. Skelly

ROLES Resources, Writing – review & editing

AFFILIATION Peter Medawar Building for Pathogen Research, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

Eleanor Barnes

ROLES Resources, Writing – review & editing

AFFILIATIONS Peter Medawar Building for Pathogen Research, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom, Translational Gastroenterology Unit, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom, Jenner Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

Susanna Dunachie

ROLES Resources, Writing – review & editing

AFFILIATION Peter Medawar Building for Pathogen Research, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

Graham Ogg

ROLES Resources

AFFILIATION MRC Human Immunology Unit, Weatherall Institute of Molecular Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

Teresa Lambe

ROLES Resources, Writing – review & editing

AFFILIATION Jenner Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

Ian Pavord

ROLES Investigation, Writing – review & editing

AFFILIATION Respiratory Medicine Unit, and Oxford NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

Alex K. Shalek

ROLES Investigation, Writing – review & editing

AFFILIATIONS Institute for Medical Engineering and Science, Department of Chemistry, and Koch Institute for Integrative Cancer Research, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States of America, Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States of America, Ragon Institute of MGH, MIT, and Harvard, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States of America

Craig P. Thompson

ROLES Investigation, Writing – review & editing

AFFILIATION Peter Medawar Building for Pathogen Research, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

Luzheng Xue

ROLES Investigation, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

AFFILIATION Respiratory Medicine Unit, and Oxford NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

Derek C. Macallan

ROLES Conceptualization, Resources, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

AFFILIATIONS Institute for Infection & Immunity, St. George’s University of London, London, United Kingdom, Clinical Academic Group in Infection and Immunity, St. George’s Hospital NHS Trust, London, United Kingdom

Philip Goulder

ROLES Conceptualization, Funding acquisition, Resources, Supervision, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

‡ PG, PK, and TB jointly led this project.

AFFILIATION Peter Medawar Building for Pathogen Research, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

Paul Klenerman

ROLES Conceptualization, Funding acquisition, Investigation, Resources, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

 paul.klenerman@medawar.ox.ac.uk

‡ PG, PK, and TB jointly led this project.

AFFILIATIONS Peter Medawar Building for Pathogen Research, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom, Translational Gastroenterology Unit, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

Tihana Bicanic

ROLES Conceptualization, Funding acquisition, Investigation, Resources, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

‡ PG, PK, and TB jointly led this project.

AFFILIATIONS Institute for Infection & Immunity, St. George’s University of London, London, United Kingdom, Clinical Academic Group in Infection and Immunity, St. George’s Hospital NHS Trust, London, United Kingdom


Abstract

Prior studies have demonstrated that immunologic dysfunction underpins severe illness in COVID-19 patients but have lacked an in-depth analysis of the immunologic drivers of death in the most critically ill patients. We performed immunophenotyping of viral antigen-specific and unconventional T cell responses, neutralizing antibodies, and serum proteins in critically ill patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection, using influenza infection, SARS-CoV-2-convalescent health care workers, and healthy adults as controls. We identify mucosal-associated invariant T (MAIT) cell activation as an independent and significant predictor of death in COVID-19 (HR = 5.92, 95% CI = 2.49–14.1). MAIT cell activation correlates with several other mortality-associated immunologic measures including broad activation of CD8+ T cells and non-Vδ2 γδT cells, and elevated levels of cytokines and chemokines, including GM-CSF, CXCL10, CCL2, and IL-6. MAIT cell activation is also a predictor of disease severity in influenza (ECMO/death HR = 4.43, 95% CI = 1.08–18.2). Single-cell RNA-sequencing reveals a shift from focused IFNα-driven signals in COVID-19 ICU patients who survive to broad pro-inflammatory responses in fatal COVID-19 –a feature not observed in severe influenza. We conclude that fatal COVID-19 infection is driven by uncoordinated inflammatory responses that drive a hierarchy of T cell activation, elements of which can serve as prognostic indicators and potential targets for immune intervention.

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