Study linking excess deaths and SARS-CoV2 vaccinations in Scotland


In Scotland, vaccination was found to be associated with an increase in excess deaths from mid/end January until end of February 2021 for the oldest three age groups (45, 151 and 113 weekly excess deaths for 18/01, 25/01 and 01/02 respectively for the 80+ age group – which increased from -19 excess deaths on 11/01) There are more moderate but maintained excess deaths in 55-59, 60-64 and 65-69 between 25/01 and 15/02 (but it’s hard to say anything for 55-59 and 60-64 because less than 50% of those age groups has been vaccinated so far) There are no observable effects in the younger age groups but these have less than 12% vaccinated in the first half of the year and the datasets don't sufficiently overlap for meaningful analyses. 

This analysis doesn’t prove a causal link between vaccination and excess death. 

The main point is that in the age groups that have received the majority of vaccinations, the weekly number of excess deaths has been maintained (and increased in some age groups) throughout the first dose vaccination program and is only reducing now that it has largely ended.



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